The long-standing duopoly of the Apple App Store and Google Play Store is facing its most significant challenge yet. A new economic analysis suggests that the recently launched ChatGPT App Store could cost Apple and Google $44 billion as users migrate their digital spending to OpenAI’s ecosystem.
ChatGPT could become Apple and Google’s app stores biggest threat
The projections come from Flywheel Studio . They analyzed the spending habits of ChatGPT’s 800 million weekly active users. By looking at the global average revenue per smartphone user—currently estimated at roughly $55 annually—the math reveals a potential $44.26 billion redirection of capital.
For over a decade, Apple and Google have acted as the primary gateways for mobile commerce. However, with the launch of the ChatGPT App Directory, OpenAI has created a shortcut. Instead of navigating through a crowded app store to find a specific tool, users are now accomplishing tasks—from travel booking to financial planning—directly within their chat threads.
The power of a trusted advisor
It’s not just the number of users that makes this shift so disruptive. The whole issue is also about the type of relationship. People see traditional app stores as places to get things done. On the other hand, they often treat ChatGPT as a personal assistant or a “trusted colleague.” This difference in psychology changes how business and advertising work.
When an AI recommends a specific tool to solve a problem in real-time, the conversion is far more effective than a generic banner ad. The “apps” in the directory feel more like integrated features than standalone goods since the AI is aware of the user’s unique context. This seamless experience encourages users to stay within the OpenAI environment. So, it effectively bypasses the traditional “toll booths” managed by Big Tech.
A new era of digital advertising
Industry experts are comparing this transition to the impact of the launch of Facebook ads in 2007. For years, Google and Apple have dominated advertising by owning the search bar and the home screen. But as ChatGPT becomes the “front door” to the internet for hundreds of millions of people, those traditional ad slots lose their value.
When an AI suggests a specific tool to use to solve a problem in real time, the conversion rate is much higher than with a generic banner ad. Because the AI knows the user’s specific situation, the “apps” in the directory feel more like built-in features than separate items. This smooth experience makes users want to stay in the OpenAI environment. So, it goes around the “toll booths” that Big Tech usually runs.
Apple and Google still own the hardware we use every day. But they might lose their hold on the underlying marketplace. We will have to wait to see if these predictions come true and how big tech will react.
