Earlier this year, when US President Donald Trump first announced plans for sweeping tariffs, the markets panicked. We can’t say we’re surprised. Trump had initially planned on placing massive tariffs on China, and since most phones are manufactured in China, many were worried this could lead to increased prices. This is also why the IDC had initially predicted a negative smartphone forecast in 2025 . However, the institute had a change of heart.
IDC predicts more positive smartphone forecast for 2025
According to the IDC’s latest figures, they are now predicting a growth of 1% in their smartphone forecast for 2025. This is an improvement compared to May. At the start of the year, the IDC actually had a much more positive outlook. The institute predicted a 2.6% growth in the smartphone market.
However, following Trump’s tariffs , they dropped that prediction down to a paltry 0.6%. But now, it looks like they believe that growth in the smartphone market could close at 1% in 2025. Interestingly enough, it seems that they have to thank Apple for that. The IDC’s report suggests that the increase could be contributed an “accelerated 3.9% iOS growth.”
According to Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, “While tariff volatility continues to pose high uncertainty, for now it is just background noise for the majority of smartphone vendors. OEMs must push forward their diversification and production plans to ensure there are enough shipments to fulfill demand which remains healthy in most markets, in select segments.”
GenAI and foldables to contribute to growth
While the IDC thinks Apple’s iOS could contribute to the smartphone market’s growth in 2025, Apple won’t be alone in carrying the smartphone market for the next few years. The report suggests that the smartphone market is expected to grow steadily through 2029. It also claims that on-device generative AI features will help drive that growth, as well as an increasing interest in foldable phones.
The IDC doesn’t mention Apple in terms of foldables. However, we should point out that Apple will launch its first foldable iPhone in 2026 . Apple has a strong reputation and brand, so there’s a good chance its foldable iPhone could succeed. But this is something we’ll have to wait until 2026 to find out. Maybe then, the IDC could revise its predictions.
